# Gold Price Weekly Analysis: January 5-11, 2026 – XAUUSD Surges Amid US-Venezuela Crisis – Will It Hit $4,500 This Week?
**Published: January 5, 2026**
As we kick off the first full trading week of 2026, gold (XAUUSD) is stealing the spotlight once again. Spot gold opened the year strongly, trading around **$4,400-$4,405 per ounce** after a brief holiday dip, with prices jumping over 1.5% in early sessions driven by fresh geopolitical fireworks.
### The Big Fundamental Driver: US Intervention in Venezuela
The weekend's bombshell news – U.S. forces capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife on drug charges, followed by President Trump's announcement that the U.S. will temporarily "run" the country to stabilize and tap into its massive oil reserves – has sent shockwaves through global markets.
This marks the most significant U.S. military intervention in Latin America in decades, sparking celebrations in some Venezuelan communities abroad, protests at home, and sharp condemnations from allies like Cuba, Russia, and others. While the long-term goal appears to be rebuilding Venezuela's oil infrastructure (the world's largest reserves) with American involvement, the immediate fallout is **heightened uncertainty**.
Geopolitical tensions like this are classic fuel for gold's safe-haven status. Investors are rushing in, fearing regional instability, potential supply disruptions, or broader global backlash. We've already seen spot gold spike to around **$4,405**, with futures touching similar highs.
**Short-term impact (this week):** Expect continued upside pressure and volatility. If headlines escalate – more protests, international responses, or supply concerns – XAUUSD could easily test **$4,500** or higher by week's end.
**Mid-term outlook (January 2026):** Mixed but supportive. If the U.S. succeeds in stabilizing and ramping up Venezuelan oil production, it could ease global energy pressures and temper inflation, potentially capping gold's rally. However, ongoing uncertainty or backlash keeps the safe-haven bid strong. Analysts are eyeing averages around $4,400-$4,500 for the month, with some forecasting pushes toward $4,800-$5,000 by year-end if risks persist.
### Other Key Fundamentals Supporting Gold
- **Fed Policy:** Minutes from the December FOMC meeting show policymakers open to further rate cuts if inflation cools, supporting lower yields and a softer dollar – both bullish for gold.
- **Central Bank Buying:** Expected to remain robust at ~70 tons/month on average in 2026.
- **Investor Flows:** ETF inflows and physical demand are picking up again after a strong 2025 (gold's best year since 1979 with ~65-67% gains).
### Technical Outlook for This Week
XAUUSD is holding firm above key support near $4,300-$4,350 (20-day MA and trendline). Resistance sits at recent highs around $4,440-$4,450.
- **Bullish scenario:** Break and close above $4,441 could accelerate toward $4,500+.
- **Bearish risks:** Pullback to $4,275 if profit-taking hits, but major support at $4,000 remains intact for the broader uptrend.
Overall, the bias remains **bullish** – buy dips in this environment.
### Final Thoughts
2026 is starting with a bang, and gold is thriving on the chaos. The Venezuela situation adds serious safe-haven fuel to an already strong bull case. Watch headlines closely this week – they could dictate if we see new records soon.
What do you think – will XAUUSD hit $4,500 this week? Drop your thoughts in the comments!
**Keywords:** gold price prediction January 2026, XAUUSD weekly forecast, gold Venezuela crisis impact, gold price surge 2026, safe haven gold, geopolitical risks gold
*Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trading involves risk.*
