Gold Price Prediction Next Week (Feb 16–20, 2026): FOMC Minutes, Trump Peace Talks & Core PCE — What Traders Must Know
Gold ended last week in a turbulent state — crashing to $4,880 mid-week before recovering sharply to $5,030 after cooler-than-expected CPI data. Now, heading into the week of February 16–20, 2026, traders face a loaded calendar: FOMC Minutes, a potentially market-moving "Peace Board" meeting, and the Fed's favourite inflation gauge — Core PCE. Here is everything you need to know before the market opens.
Gold Weekly Impact Summary
Fundamental Analysis · Feb 9–13 Review + Feb 16–20 Outlook
ANALYSIS
XAU/USD Current Zone
$4,880 – $5,030
Flash Crash Low → CPI Recovery High
⚠️
CRITICAL PIVOT: FEB 19 Trump's "Board for Peace" meeting could send gold to $4,800 on a deal — or trigger a massive safe-haven rally above $5,100 on failure. Watch closely.
Key Market Drivers This Week
🏦 Monetary Policy
STRONG BEARISH
Kevin Warsh Fed Nomination
DXY Surge · "Warsh Shock" Triggered
Markets priced in a leaner Fed balance sheet, spiking the dollar and hammering gold. This signals the end of the "easy money" era.
📊 Mid-Term Outlook
Resistance at $5,100 is now significantly stronger. Regime shift underway.
🌍 Geopolitical
BEARISH THU/FRI
Trump "Board For Peace"
Feb 19 Meeting · Gaza / Iran Grand Bargain
Hopes for a diplomatic resolution in Gaza/Iran reduced the safe-haven premium, pulling gold lower mid-week.
🎯 Critical Pivot
Deal success → $4,800 | Failure → Massive rally toward $5,300+
📈 Inflation Data
BULLISH FRIDAY
US CPI January 2026
2.4% Actual vs 2.5% Expected
Cooler-than-expected inflation fueled a late-week recovery, pushing gold from $4,880 back up to $5,030.
🛡️ Supportive Floor
Provides a fundamental floor near $4,900 if inflation continues to cool.
Secondary Factors & Structural Moves
💼 US Labor
BEARISH THU
Nonfarm Payrolls
130K vs 70K Expected · 4.3% Unemployment
Strong jobs slashed March rate cut odds to near zero.
⏳ Delayed Pivot
"Higher for longer" limits gold's upside.
📉 Market Structure
VOLATILITY
CME Margin Hike
6% → 8% Margin Requirement
Forced leveraged position liquidations contributing to the $100+ Flash Crash.
🌑 Thin Liquidity
Lunar New Year = low retail volume next week.
🏛️ Central Banks
LONG-TERM BULL
PBOC Gold Buying
Continued Chinese Accumulation
China's ongoing buying provides a psychological safety net beneath prices.
🧱 Floor Builder
Physical gold demand remains robust despite Warsh Shock.
⚡ Energy / Russia
BEARISH SENTIMENT
"Dollar Deal" Rumors
Russia → USD Oil Settlement Speculation
Speculation of Russia returning to USD undermines de-dollarization thesis.
💵 USD Strength
If confirmed, removes a major pro-gold argument for 2026.
🐻 Bear Case
$4,700
Peace deal + Warsh confirmed
↘ Soft Bear
$4,800
Partial deal / risk-off easing
⚡ Base Case
$4,900–$5,030
Consolidation + PBOC support
↗ Soft Bull
$5,100
CPI cool + no peace deal
🚀 Bull Case
$5,300+
Talks collapse + safe haven surge
📅 Strategy Note: Next Week (Feb 16–20)
MON
FEB 16
Presidents' Day
🇺🇸 US + 🇨🇳 CN Markets Closed
Both US markets and China (Lunar New Year) are closed. Expect very slow, sideways movement with minimal volume.
↔️
Range trading. No major moves expected.
WED
FEB 18
FOMC Minutes
🕑 2:00 PM EST
Watch for language around "higher for longer" or "tariff-driven inflation." Hawkish tone could hit gold hard.
📉
Could push Gold back below $4,950
THU
FEB 19
Trump Peace Board
⚠️ Black Swan Event
If a photo-op suggests a deal with Iran / Middle East, gold could drop $50+ in minutes. Failure = massive safe-haven surge.
🔻
Deal → $50+ instant drop. No deal → strong rally.
⚡ EXTREME VOLATILITY RISK
FRI
FEB 20
Core PCE Data
📊 Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge
If Core PCE prints higher than expected, the key support at $4,880 is in serious danger of breaking down.
🎯
Hot print → $4,880 support at risk of collapse
Last Week Recap: What Rocked Gold (Feb 9–13)
Before we look ahead, it is critical to understand the forces that shaped last week. Five major catalysts drove extreme volatility in XAU/USD:
- Kevin Warsh Fed Nomination: Triggered the so-called "Warsh Shock," sending the US dollar surging and signalling the end of easy monetary policy. Resistance at $5,100 is now significantly stronger.
- Strong Nonfarm Payrolls (130K vs 70K expected): With unemployment at 4.3%, March rate cut odds collapsed to near zero, reinforcing a "higher for longer" rate environment that weighs on non-yielding gold.
- US CPI came in at 2.4% (below the 2.5% estimate): This was the saving grace. Cooler inflation sparked a sharp Friday recovery from $4,880 back above $5,000.
- CME Margin Hike (6% → 8%): Forced leveraged position liquidations that contributed to the $100+ flash crash in gold during the week.
- PBOC Continued Gold Buying: China's ongoing accumulation provides a structural floor and long-term bullish support for physical gold demand.
Bottom Line from Last Week: Gold is caught between two powerful forces — a hawkish Fed and dollar-strength on one side, versus sticky inflation, geopolitical risk, and central bank buying on the other. The resolution of this tension will define the next major trend.
Key XAU/USD Price Levels Heading Into Next Week
Understanding the current price structure is essential before interpreting next week's events. Here are the levels every gold trader should have on their chart:
| Level | Price | Significance | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| Major Resistance | $5,100 | Post-Warsh Shock ceiling; now significantly harder to break | Sell Zone |
| Immediate Resistance | $5,030–$5,050 | Last week's CPI recovery high; first barrier on the way up | Watch |
| Current Range / Base Case | $4,950–$5,030 | Consolidation zone; market digests FOMC and PCE data | Neutral |
| Key Support | $4,950 | Level to watch if FOMC Minutes turn hawkish on Wednesday | Pivot |
| Major Support | $4,880 | Last week's flash crash low; a hot Core PCE could retest this | Buy Zone |
| Deep Bear Target | $4,700–$4,800 | Only at risk if Trump peace deal succeeds + PCE surprises high | Danger Zone |
Next Week's Key Events: Day-by-Day Gold Forecast (Feb 16–20)
This is arguably one of the most event-heavy weeks of the year for gold traders. Four major catalysts — spread across four separate trading days — could each independently move gold by $50 or more.
Monday · Feb 16
Presidents' Day + Lunar New Year
US equity markets are closed for Presidents' Day, and Chinese markets are shut for the start of the Lunar New Year holiday. With two of the world's largest trading participants absent, expect extremely thin liquidity and sideways, range-bound price action.
Strategy: Avoid taking large positions on Monday. Low volume can cause exaggerated, unpredictable moves on minimal news. This is a day to prepare and plan, not trade aggressively.
Strategy: Avoid taking large positions on Monday. Low volume can cause exaggerated, unpredictable moves on minimal news. This is a day to prepare and plan, not trade aggressively.
📊 Expected Move: Sideways range trading. No directional bias.
Wednesday · Feb 18 · 2:00 PM EST
FOMC Minutes Release
The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its last meeting. Markets will be laser-focused on any language around "higher for longer" interest rates or concerns about tariff-driven inflation pushing prices back up.
If the minutes reveal a Fed that is more hawkish than expected — particularly referencing Trump's tariff policies as an inflation risk — the US dollar could strengthen and gold may be pushed back below $4,950.
Conversely, if the minutes emphasise data-dependence and openness to cuts, gold could hold its recent gains and push back toward $5,050+.
If the minutes reveal a Fed that is more hawkish than expected — particularly referencing Trump's tariff policies as an inflation risk — the US dollar could strengthen and gold may be pushed back below $4,950.
Conversely, if the minutes emphasise data-dependence and openness to cuts, gold could hold its recent gains and push back toward $5,050+.
📉 Hawkish Minutes → Gold could drop below $4,950
Thursday · Feb 19
Trump "Board for Peace" Meeting
This is the wildcard event of the week — and arguably the highest-risk day for gold traders in months. President Trump's "Board for Peace" summit could involve discussions around a ceasefire or diplomatic resolution in Iran, Gaza, and the broader Middle East.
Gold is an extremely sensitive safe-haven asset. Any photo-op, statement, or news headline suggesting meaningful progress toward a peace deal could instantly strip $50 or more from the gold price in a matter of minutes.
However, if talks collapse, escalate, or produce no agreement, the resulting uncertainty could trigger a powerful safe-haven surge toward $5,100 and beyond.
Gold is an extremely sensitive safe-haven asset. Any photo-op, statement, or news headline suggesting meaningful progress toward a peace deal could instantly strip $50 or more from the gold price in a matter of minutes.
However, if talks collapse, escalate, or produce no agreement, the resulting uncertainty could trigger a powerful safe-haven surge toward $5,100 and beyond.
🔻 Deal hint → Instant $50+ drop | 🚀 Failure → Major rally
⚡ Black Swan Risk — Extreme Volatility
Friday · Feb 20
Core PCE Inflation Data
The week closes with the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge — Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures). This data point carries enormous weight because it directly influences when the Fed will cut interest rates.
If Core PCE prints higher than expected, it signals that inflation is still sticky, virtually eliminating any chance of a rate cut in March or May. This would be bearish for gold and could push prices down to retest the critical $4,880 support level.
A cooler-than-expected reading, similar to last Friday's CPI surprise, would be bullish — and could set gold up for another leg higher toward $5,100 in subsequent weeks.
If Core PCE prints higher than expected, it signals that inflation is still sticky, virtually eliminating any chance of a rate cut in March or May. This would be bearish for gold and could push prices down to retest the critical $4,880 support level.
A cooler-than-expected reading, similar to last Friday's CPI surprise, would be bullish — and could set gold up for another leg higher toward $5,100 in subsequent weeks.
🎯 Hot Print → $4,880 support at serious risk of breaking
Trader Warning — Double Event Risk on Thu/Fri: The Trump Peace Board meeting (Thursday) and Core PCE (Friday) could create back-to-back extreme volatility events. A peace deal on Thursday followed by a hot PCE on Friday could be devastating for gold bulls — while a collapse in talks combined with cool PCE could be explosive to the upside. Position size accordingly.
Gold Price Scenarios for Next Week
Based on the combination of FOMC Minutes, Trump Peace Board, and Core PCE, here are the three most probable price scenarios for gold next week:
Longer-Term Structural Factors Still Supporting Gold
Even amid short-term bearish headwinds, the following structural factors continue to underpin gold's long-term bullish case and should prevent a deep collapse:
- PBOC (China) Continues to Accumulate: The People's Bank of China is a consistent buyer of physical gold, providing an institutional floor beneath the market regardless of Fed policy.
- Global Central Bank Gold Buying Trend: The broader de-dollarisation trend — where nations reduce their US dollar reserves in favour of gold — remains structurally intact even if temporarily challenged by the Russia "Dollar Deal" rumours.
- Inflation Still Above Fed Target: With CPI at 2.4% and the Fed's 2% target still not reached, the rate-cut cycle has not ended — it has only been delayed. When cuts resume, gold should benefit significantly.
- Warsh Shock is a Regime Shift, Not a Crash: The Kevin Warsh nomination signals tighter policy, but it does not negate gold's value as a store of wealth. It simply repositions the $5,100 ceiling as a stronger resistance level until confirmed policy change occurs.
- Dollar Strength Remains the Primary Headwind: A strong USD continues to suppress gold prices in the near term. Any dollar weakness from dovish Fed signals would be the fastest catalyst for a gold breakout.
The week of February 16–20 is not a week to be complacent in the gold market. Between the FOMC Minutes, the Trump Peace Board wildcard, and Core PCE — three independent catalysts could each move gold by $50 or more in opposite directions. Preparation, not prediction, is the key.
Trading Strategy Summary: What to Watch
| Day | Event | Watch For | Gold Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Feb 16 | Markets Closed | No major trigger | Sideways / Range |
| Wed Feb 18 | FOMC Minutes | "Higher for longer" or tariff language | Bearish below $4,950 |
| Thu Feb 19 | Trump Peace Board | Any photo-op or deal hint | $50+ drop risk |
| Fri Feb 20 | Core PCE | Hot print = USD up, gold down | $4,880 test if hot |
Key Tip for Next Week: Given the Lunar New Year thin liquidity on Monday and the back-to-back event risk on Thursday and Friday, consider waiting for the FOMC Minutes reaction on Wednesday before establishing any significant directional position. Let the market show its hand first.
Conclusion: Gold's Next Move Hinges on Three Key Questions
Heading into the week of February 16–20, 2026, the gold market faces three defining questions that will determine which scenario plays out:
First: Will the FOMC Minutes confirm a fully hawkish Fed, or leave room for future rate cuts? Second: Will Trump's Peace Board meeting produce a diplomatic breakthrough that crushes the geopolitical safe-haven premium? Third: Will Core PCE confirm that inflation is truly cooling, or will a hot print put the $4,880 support level in danger?
The answers to these three questions will tell us whether gold consolidates in the $4,900–$5,050 base case, breaks down toward the $4,700–$4,800 bear case, or surprises to the upside with a push toward $5,100 and beyond.
One thing is certain: this is not a week to be on autopilot. Watch the headlines closely, know your key levels, and let the price action guide your decisions.
📺 Watch the Full Video Analysis
See the complete fundamental breakdown with our interactive infographic — covering every driver from last week and exactly what to watch next week.
▶ Watch on YouTube
Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Gold markets involve significant risk and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.
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