Gold Price Prediction Next Week (Feb 23–27, 2026): SCOTUS Shock, Iran 10-Day Ultimatum & China Market Reopen – The Most Explosive Week of 2026
Gold is trading at $5,108 as we head into what could be the most volatile week of 2026. The Supreme Court just blocked Trump's tariff plan, the US issued a 10-day ultimatum to Iran with massive military deployments, Chinese gold markets reopen Monday after a 9-day closure, and viral BRICS currency rumors are spreading like wildfire. This is not a normal week. Here's everything you need to know before markets open.
🚨 Breaking: Three Game-Changing Events This Week
Before we dive into price targets and data releases, you need to understand the three seismic events that happened in the last 48 hours — each one capable of moving gold by $50+ on its own.
On Friday, the US Supreme Court ruled President Trump's global tariff plan unconstitutional, blocking his use of emergency executive powers to impose sweeping trade restrictions. This is a massive judicial rebuke to the White House.
Markets initially rallied on "risk-on" sentiment as trade war fears cooled. Gold dipped briefly — but then recovered sharply to $5,108.
President Trump gave Iran a 10-day deadline to agree to a new nuclear deal or face "unfortunate consequences." This isn't just rhetoric — the US has deployed aircraft carriers, fighter jets, and strike groups to the Persian Gulf in the largest military mobilization since the Iraq War.
This is the reason gold held above $5,100 despite a strong US dollar. The market is pricing in a real war premium.
Chinese gold markets (Shanghai Gold Exchange and SHFE) have been closed since February 16 for the Lunar New Year holiday. They reopen Monday, February 24.
During the closure, Western markets experienced higher volatility due to the absence of the "Shanghai Premium" — the phenomenon where gold typically trades at a higher price in China due to physical demand.
👁️ Viral Macro Trends & Market Rumors
Beyond the headline events, two major rumors are circulating in financial markets and social media — both bullish for gold if they gain traction.
📅 Economic Data Calendar: What's Actually Scheduled for Feb 23–27
Let's be clear: There is NO Core PCE and NO GDP data next week despite what some calendars may suggest. Here's what's actually scheduled according to the official Bureau of Labor Statistics calendar:
🎯 Key XAU/USD Price Levels for Next Week
| Level Type | Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $5,108 | Friday close after SCOTUS ruling and CPI recovery |
| Immediate Resistance | $5,150 | First barrier if Iran tensions escalate or China buying surges |
| Major Resistance | $5,200 | Bull case target if war premium intensifies |
| Key Support | $5,000 | Psychological level; break below signals bearish shift |
| Major Support | $4,880 | Last week's flash crash low; critical floor |
| Bear Target | $4,780–$4,840 | Only if Iran deal succeeds + hot PPI triggers stop-loss cascade |
💰 Gold Price Forecast: Three Scenarios for Feb 23–27
🛡️ Trading Strategy & Risk Management for Next Week
This is an extremely high-risk, high-reward week. The combination of geopolitical uncertainty, China liquidity, and data releases creates a perfect storm for volatility. Here's how to navigate it:
- Reduce Position Size: The Iran 10-day ultimatum creates binary outcome risk. A surprise deal could drop gold $50+ in minutes. Don't over-leverage.
- Watch Monday's China Open Closely: The first hour of Shanghai trading will tell you if physical demand is strong or weak. Act accordingly.
- $5,000 is the Line in the Sand: If gold breaks and holds below $5,000, the technical picture turns bearish. If it holds above, bulls remain in control.
- Iran News is the Wildcard: Set alerts for any breaking news from the Middle East. This can move markets faster than any data release.
- PPI on Thursday Matters, But Not Critically: Unless PPI is a massive outlier (>0.5% MoM), it won't override the geopolitical narrative.
📋 Summary: The Forces Moving Gold Right Now
To understand where gold goes next week, you need to see the full picture. Here are the six major forces at play:
| Factor | Current Status | Gold Impact |
|---|---|---|
| SCOTUS Tariff Block | Removed tariff inflation risk, added political chaos | Neutral to Slightly Bullish |
| Iran Crisis | 10-day ultimatum + military buildup | Strongly Bullish (War Premium) |
| China Market Reopen | 9-day closure ends Monday | Bullish (Physical Demand) |
| BRICS Gold Unit Rumors | Viral speculation about gold-backed currency | Bullish (Structural Demand) |
| Fed Policy / Dollar Strength | Hawkish Fed, "higher for longer" rates | Bearish (Opportunity Cost) |
| PPI Data (Thu) | Could signal inflation reacceleration | Neutral (Depends on Print) |
Net Assessment: The bullish forces (geopolitical risk, China demand, BRICS rumors) are currently outweighing the bearish forces (hawkish Fed, strong dollar). This is why gold is holding above $5,100 despite an environment that would normally be bearish for the metal.
🎯 Final Verdict: The Week Ahead
Next week (February 23–27, 2026) is shaping up to be one of the most critical periods for gold in years. We have:
- A ticking 10-day Iran nuclear ultimatum with the largest US military deployment since Iraq
- Chinese gold markets reopening after a 9-day closure, with pent-up physical demand
- SCOTUS vs. Trump constitutional crisis creating political uncertainty
- BRICS de-dollarization rumors intensifying structural gold demand
- PPI data on Thursday that could signal whether inflation is truly cooling
Our call: Gold likely trades in the $4,950–$5,150 range with high volatility. The base case is consolidation, but the probability of a breakout (in either direction) is unusually high. Watch the Iran headlines and Monday's China open — those are your two most important signals.
If you're a trader: reduce size, widen stops, and stay nimble. If you're a long-term investor: this volatility is noise. The structural case for gold (central bank buying, de-dollarization, geopolitical fragmentation) remains intact regardless of short-term price action.
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